Unpacking Doximity’s (DOCS) Q4 Numbers
Guidance disappoints and temporary factors still at play
In our April 17th report on Doximity's (DOCS) 3Q'25 results — A Peek Behind Doximity's Numbers— we highlighted several accounting-related factors that were temporarily boosting the company's financial performance. On May 15, DOCS reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.38, beating Street estimates by 11 cents. Revenue reached $138.3 million, exceeding consensus by $4.3 million.
Despite these headline beats, the company issued disappointing forward guidance. Management projected just 9% revenue growth for Q1'26 and 9%–14% for fiscal 2026 — a sharp slowdown from the 17% growth reported in 4Q. The outlook also included a modest decline in adjusted EBITDA margins for Q1 and only 3 cents of year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS.
We remain concerned that Doximity's addressable market is becoming saturated. The company noted in its 10-K that 620,000 unique providers were actively using its creative workflow tools, up just 6.9% from 580,000 a year earlier. Given that DOCS already reaches over 80% of US physicians, future user growth may be increasingly difficult to achieve.
Our analysis of the 4Q'25 results suggests that temporary and nonrecurring factors are still boosting DOCS's reported sales and earnings — and that these factors more than account for the company's 11-cent EPS beat. We explore these issues below.